Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Some decent names: CTC-A, TSGI, CFP

After the selloff last Christmas we had the inevitable run-up. While prices normalized there wasn't much in the bargain bin. My single buy in Q1, Itafos, is slightly underwater. I also bought some bond and gold hedges. 

Now that we're in Q2 there are some interesting names approaching value territory. 

Canadian Tire (CTC-A)
Name a better retailer in Canada. I bet you can't. At least I can't. 

While I wouldn't touch traditional value names in this sector with a 92-ft pole (looking at you, Reitmans!), there is no denying that people continue to shop at Canadian Tire. I hate the place and I still go sometimes. 

Traditional value metrics like p/b, debt and so forth don't really matter, in my view, when you have the nuthold on the economy that CT does. It pays a growing dividend in case you care about that kind of thing. 

The Stars Group (TSGI)
This company is the Amazon of online poker. No one comes close in terms of traffic or in quality of software. The only real gripe about them is that they continuously downgrade their rebate programs (rakeback, cashback, VIP points) to the chagrin of regulars. But then this company makes its money off of recreational players, not professionals. 

Unless humans suddenly bore of gambling, I don't see anything standing in the way of this company in the short term. 

Canfor (CFP)
Yeah there are trade tensions and Trump and blah blah blah, but wood is a fundamental material to human existence. I don't know how someone could be bearish on wood except in the very short term. 

This one weighs better on value metrics than the other two with low debt, low p/b, low p/s, etc. It is also the most beaten-up of its woodsy peers. 

Disclosure: I'm short puts on Stars Group and Canfor. No position of any kind in CTC.



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